tv Piers Morgan Tonight CNN November 5, 2012 3:00am-4:00am EST
ridge boys and hugging his grandchildren. you can see a lot more of the pictures on our website cnn.com. stay with us for the complete coverage of the final hours of the 2012 campaign. >> join us tuesday 6:00 p.m. eastern for election night in america. "piers morgan tonight" starts right now. you know where i stand. and you know what i believe. you know i tell the truth. and you know i'll fight for you and your families every single day as hard as i know how. a fiery president obama fighting for his life. the man who wants his job, mitt romney, we're keeping an eye on that for you tonight. good evening. and welcome to a very special battleground edition of "piers morgan tonight."
the latest poll out tonight shows this race is a down to the wire dead heat. look at these figures. 49% for president obama. 49% for mitt romney. with two days to go until election day. this may be the picture of who makes a difference. less than a week after sandy's fury, temperatures are dropping and anger is rising. among the storm tossed appliances and debris, no power. american flags flying proudly. people determined to vote if they can figure out where. a whopping 67% of voter as prove of the president's handling of super storm sandy. we begin with susan candiotti in rockaway. tell me what is the mood like. the approval rating for the president is pretty high. on the other hand, lots of people still suffering, what is the real mood, do you think? >> certainly in this area, piers, there's a mood of frustration. people here are torn and you can see why just look all around me. i'm standing on part of a board walk.
this used to be part of a miles long board walk that ran along the ocean. sandy has broken it up and sent it down the streets. it's lined with all kinds of debris from homes flooded here. they have no power. no telephone service. only spotty cell phone service. the temperatures are plunging. what are they thinking about? how to clean up from all of this, and this is the backdrop for coming up on the eve of election day. what do they do about that? how do they get to the polls? these are some of the issues they're frustrated about right now. >> tell me this, susan, do they care about the election? or is this the last thing on their minds? these people have lost their homes, their livelihoods, in some cases their lives. do they care enough about this
election to try to get to a polling booth, even if they could? >> you know, i've been talking to a lot of people out here, they're of two minds, some of them don't care. they have their hands full with all of this, they say, we're just trying to survive. but other people are saying, no matter what, they're going to make it to the polls come hell or high water. in this case, i guess literally. they're trying to figure out a way to get there, this is what the board of elections is facing and the two parties who are worried. i talked to both parties today about people being able to get to the polls. they're trying to come up with, well, how do you tell them? there's no electricity, you can't call people up. the internet's down for the most part, they're trying to talk about sending out flyers. there's limited transportation. there is one phone number from a nonpartisan group called 866-our-vote telling people to try to call them if they can to figure out how to get to polling places. they also have the company that
makes the polling machines, they sent out a ton of generators today, to go out to polling stations to make sure that those polling stations will have power. >> finally, susan, i had a very fiery interview with rudy giuliani on friday, accusing the president of dereliction of duty, he shouldn't have been campaigning in nevada. he should have been in rockaway, and places where people have been suffering. do the people feel strongly the president should have come to where you are? >> reporter: well, i -- those i talked to know that the president came out to the area -- those who are supportive of him, and those who aren't, but there main thing is, they don't -- they just want people to get help to them at this point. they're not worried about the politics and the election and the campaigning. they're just seeking help. they need power, they need to
get their lives back in order, and so far they haven't seen much help out here. >> newark new jersey was also hit hard by sandy. cory booker is walking the streets, asking for help. >> there's still tens of thousands of residents without power. you have streets like this, where there's not only no power, but trees have fallen through their homes. i will say this about our city, about the state of new jersey, our nation. people are often at their best when things are at their worst, the resiliency of my community is very much there, the self-reliance, the fortitude. there's a lot of folks suffering a lot of challenges right now. especially as you have isolated
seniors, disabled, people who are sick. we're doing our best to set up logistic networks to get to them. we're going to endure through this, it's going to become more challenging day after day as places go on without power. >> it's getting noticeably colder this weekend. another storm due on wednesday, with freezing cold temperatures, it's going to be very hard for those who don't have power. so our thoughts are with them. let's turn to the election. as i said just now to susan candiotti, rudy giuliani was explosive on this show friday night. he had been saying the president had been ignoring new york. he went to new jersey, but he hadn't been to any new york sites. he had been unpresidential. what did you make of that? >> reporter: that seems so blatantly partisan, during this time where we in the tristate area are suffering. we don't need that kind of language. the reality is, giuliani is no
longer in office. i've been on calls, regional calls where we have about 20, 30 people there. officials from new york, new jersey directly in conversation with the president, intense calls where we're discussing issues, strategies, the president doesn't need to have boots on the ground in new york. especially with all the logistical problems. flying manhattan. what we are needing from him and getting from the president of the united states right now is extraordinary support. he has called new york city officials as well as me, myself, here in new jersey directly himself. made fema available. hud available. even talked to the secretary of education, arnie duncan, who reached out. that is ridiculous this president has leaned in heavily, not on a partisan nature, more of a human and heart, cut through red tape and made sure that places like this here in newark, new jersey, were getting the resources we need.
>> polls show this is a knife's edge election. what do you think will be the determining factor in the end? >> i think people will see the truth of what the president has done. nobody, as bill clinton said so eloquently in the democratic convention, no president since fdr inherited the kind of mess, the kind of challenges people in this area really do remember, the kind of fear, the free fall of our economy. he has turned that around. cities like mine, we see it still hurting. unemployment is extremely high. but hell this is newark, new jersey's, biggest economic development period of growth since the 1950s, first new hotels in downtown in 40 years, first new office towers in 20 years, so much of that is because of our federal partnerships that are going on. so this is a president that has battled through. and then there's a whole group of issues i think have people afraid of what would happen if obama left. families with children with pre-existing conditions that now
will suddenly be vulnerable to insurance companies. you have people in the military, who now are able to serve, proudly telling the truth of who they are, not worried about who they love, but only about the capacity of them to serve. they are afraid of what will happen if this president loses. we have women who now can fight for equal pay for equal work, what's gonna happen to them? and the supreme court with a woman's right to choose. so on the economy, the president has shown his ability to get this country out of a free fall back on the road to recovery and but more importantly, to some people, who now have a country more equal, more accepting, opened up avenues to health care, preventive care for women, with one presidential candidate saying he is going to close things like planned parenthood. another says he is going to preserve those things. those issues, i think a lot of people with enthusiastic about defending the gains we have made >> corey booker, as always, very perceptive. i appreciate you coming on. thank you. >> i want to say one thing to your point earlier, here is a block with no power, houses
severely damaged, i want to turn around and say are you guys gonna vote in this election? >> yes. >> you heard t. >> obama. >> we may be in tough times but the people here are tough and they understand how important this election is and we are going to get out the vote here in newark even though we are struggling. >> that's great to see. corey, thank you very much. two days before this election, the race couldn't get tighter, joining me now, republican congressman jason chavit of utah, from the battleground state of new hampshire. welcome to you, congressman. >> thanks, piers. >> this is going right to the wire. david gergen, who knows a few things about elections, says he can never remember one quite this close. what do you make of the reality on the ground? where do you think you really are? >> we are fired up. i was with mitt romney and paul ryan two nights ago in ohio, tens of thousands of people turning out. mitt romney has now been in pennsylvania, firing up crowds there. nobody thought that pennsylvania would be in play but it is now. this is a group that is fired up. we are excited.
we're in the right spot at the right time. smith right candidate. the president's been struggling to bump up above 50% and i think the country fundamentally know it is off track, wants to get back on track and i think they are ready to make that change to mitt romney and paul ryan. >> if you can't beat an incumbent president when unemployment is just nearly at 8% still and the debt's risen by $5 trillion, to $16 interest pretty much a disaster for the republican party, isn't it? >> that's yes think had the country's going to make a change. you are exactly right. we have this unbelievable debt. we are paying more than $600 million a day in interest on the debt. the president promised that if he took office, he was gonna cut the deficit in half. he didn't do that he doubled the size of it. have 23 million americans who
are struggling to find work. this is why i think we are going to make a change. mares proven that he he is a great, consistent candidate, he is going to make the country proud,'s man of integrity and in part, why i think mitt romney will be the next president of the united states. >> you didn't answer my question which is if you don't win, if at the reagan/carter race and you carter was ahead almost all the way you then ronald reagan had this unbelievable great debate, very similar to what happened then. and then ronald reagan ran away with it. i think -- i don't happen to think it's actually going to be that close. i know every single poll says it's real tight but i would love to come back on your show in about three days' time because i think mitt romney will be the next president of the united states, at least the president-elect. >> i have referred to a blazing argument i had, wasn't even an
argument, just shouting really, rudy giuliani on friday night, very animated, particularly about the events in benghazi, leading to assassination of the ambassador. he believes there is a huge coverup going on and once the investigation is concluded, it will be revealed that the obama administration lied to the american public and even went as far as saying that and covered it up what do you make of what he said and do you believe that the administration has a case to answer? >> i'm the chairman of the subcommittee on oversight, with darrell issa, myself, other members of the committee, we have been pressing this administration and if we had not pressed them, i don't think this administration would have fessed up to the fact that it was not a video that led to this attack. on june 6th, when our embassy was attacked for the second time the president and the admin station rail failed to recognize that terrorist effort. when you luke at what happened on 9/11, we lost four americans, including our first ambassador since the 1970s.
and for weeks, the administration was misleading the american people. every day goes by, more and more questions about what happened and did not happen in libya. the administration hasn't been straight with the american people or the world what did happen. >> you are a mormon politician. what would it mean to you personally to get the first ever mormon president of the united states? >> you know, i guess personally, that would mean a lot to me, but you know what, i'm pretty proud of this country. i think actually when they elected president obama, the country showed that it had grown up, that maybe some of those other factors that were there were not inhibitors and now you have got mitt romney poised to become the next president of the united states, religion has not been the first and foremost question, nor should it be. i'm actually proud of the question. personally, myself, my wife, julie, other mormons, yeah, we would be proud of the fact that mitt romney was the first mormon
president of the united states. >> congressman, best of luck. may the best man win. good to talk to you. >> thank you. coming up, michael moore is back. last weeks, fired up about super storm sandy. tonight, a no holds board -- no holds barred exchange about the election. see him next. ♪ [ female announcer ] nature exists on the grandest scale... ♪ ...and in the tiniest details. ♪ and sometimes both. nature valley granola thins pack the big taste of granola and dark chocolate into one perfect square, under 100 calories. nature valley granola thins. nature at its most delicious.
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i have four generations of family on this earth and my life has been very blessed. and if the republicans steal this election, i'm going to track down mitt romney and give him the world's biggest [ bleep ] punch. >> controversial ad from michael moore and moveon.org. he was here last week voicing outrage in the wake of super storm sandy. he has plenty more to say you two days until election day. i normally see you every six months. nervous, you're back within 48 hours. >> i'm in violation of my rules here. >> crisp new hair cut, the tie tonight. >> i did this -- you asked me to be back on a sunday and i'm going to dress up for you.
i don't have to stay here very long, do i? >> no you don't. we owe that to the viewers. talk about the ad. >> "homeland" is on. and ""boardwalk empire."" "the good wife." this is like -- everybody is watching everything else. nobody is watching -- >> everybody is watching this show. >> goes ahead. i'm ready. >> let talk politics. >> yes. >> your ad was very provocative. people loved to or hate it had? >> mostly love it had. >> were you pleased with the reaction? >> absolutely. move on they told me yesterday it is their most viewed video video in the history of their videos a group of senior citizens, they were very game for wanting to say that they are sick and tired of what's going on if anybody tried to steal the election through voter suppression or any other funny business on tuesday, they want to be on the frontlines and fight. >> that could well happen. lawyers have been mobilized now all over america, because it's on a knife edge. the latest cnn poll, 49% each, a dead heat, as things stand.
in various swing state, it is different which depending on which poll you read. what happens no one can say with certainty what is going to happen here. a question i put to you, michael why has obama not been able to be further ahead? why is it so close? >> it's combination of things you the obvious ones, you know, the economy could be better right now. there's still a lot of people out of work. we are still in afghanistan. go down the whole list of things. i think honestly, considering the hand he was dealt at the beginning, he has done a good job dealing with the mess that the bush administration handed him. and i think it's this close -- i hate to say this, because i just -- it just -- but i've been out in the midwest and i'm listening to people and stuff, i'm still amazed at how the issue of race comes up in this election, still.
somebody was saying earlier, i think it was on cnn, of the -- you know, romney is gonna win the white vote or whatever. and it is just interesting, it is like it almost sounds like a -- an odd thing to talk about i guess, you know? >> an interesting question, isn't it? i have asked a lot of people this, whether america's become more racist since barack obama became president than less and i think most people believe that it has actually become slightly more racist it has brought out more racism? >> not amongst young people, our kids, next generation, they are not -- don't have the racism, bigotry and intolerance that unfortunately lot of their parents or grandparents i'm hope. of the future. yes, i would agree that hate is a much greater motivator in this case that's why those voting for obama are nervous because those
voting for romney are very enthused about it because they are filled with so much anger around hate toward this guy, claiming him the worst president ever and all this crazy stuff and and our side, kind of like, everybody likes obama, we want to keep him in there four years but there is that level of -- >> michael, hasn't the problem with your side been the president's own demeanor? i watched him tonight in ohio and he was back to the obama of four years ago. he was on fire. and i thought where these that guy been? he wasn't there in the debates like that, not seen him on the stump like that really until the last few days. it seems me like he has only just woken up to reality. he has a real scrap on his hands on tuesday. why has obama been so curiously lackluster in this campaign? >> i don't think he has been. in fact, i don't think he has just woken up to that fact. i think he has nope for quite some time that this was going to be quite a fight. and that the other side is very
motivated to get out there. and so my big concern is how to get people out, especially people who are -- who are thinking of maybe even not voting to get them out to vote. >> the reason that many of them won't go out to vote for barack obama will be they don't feel as enthused about him as they did last time. >> yeah, okay. >> the magic's worn off a bit. how do you persuade those people think, you know what he has done okay but wasn't the messiah after all? >> okay, so he wasn't. and so, okay, so you're not that enthused. lots of things you do every day that you are not that enthused about, but we are talking about our country here. and these republicans, these plutocrats, these people who come from wall street you corporate america, bain capital who have thrown millions of people out of work they want to complete the job with mitt romney and anybody out there who is listening to this has to understand that if they -- if we allow them to have the white house back -- that's -- i don't know, that will be about it because we hold on to the power, we the people, of this country, by a thread right now. and to have them back in there, it's -- it will be an absolute
catastrophe. that's why i'm hoping that people who are thinking of sitting this out, according to "usa today," their poll, think 90 million people aren't going to vote on tuesday. >> amazing. >> but 2-1, ask them if they did vote, 2-1 said they would vote for obama. so, i'm really asking obama, you know, people who like obama but thinking of not voting to please come out and vote on tuesday and, you know, be a good american or do it for me. >> that may not be the best vote mr. obama will get all night. take a break and come back and talk about one of the real flash points in the election, the auto industry. could it cost romney the election, which would be a great irony?
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obama took gm and chrysler into bankruptcy sand sold chrysler who are going to build jeeps in china. mitt romney will fight for every american job. >> i'm mitt romney and i approve this message. >> controversial jeep ad for the romney campaign has the obama camp up in arms. back now, michael moore what did
you make of that? >> i just want topped say that we got word that football ran right lathe tonight, so the "the good wife" is not starting until 9:35. don't tune out here. got another good ten minutes. >> do what i do tape "the good wife" and "homeland" and watch me live. that is a perfect night of television. back to the jeep ads. did it have a point to it? >> no point to it. it's a lie. it's not just a cheap shot, it's an absolute lie. there's no jeep production of jeeps being made in the u.s. for american buyers that's being moved to china. in fact, they are adding jeep jobs here. it's just amazing that they can get away with this. >> in china with the chinese is the point? >> correct. which they should do. i have stayed this for 30 years that if you're gonna have these factories in mexico, how about build things for mexican, employ mexicans, pay them a good wage and let them be able to buy the stuff they're making. >> if they were building any cars in china for the american market, would you feel
differently? >> yes. yes, i would, of course. >> i feel strongly about companies like apple, for example, who outsource all the jobs to china, a lot of it comes back here. i don't think they should be doing so much of it? >> i don't i don't think they should be doing i have no t an economist who ran a study on if apple made these iphones in the u.s., they wouldn't make as big a profit as they do now making them in china but they would still make a great profit. >> yeah. and almost single handedly revive the american jobs market. >> yeah. it's -- that's asch longer discussion but it's something i have been dealing with in my films for, you know, over two decades. >> the irony of mitt romney's position, co-end up losing in the area of the auto industry workers' homes, he would have bankrupted them and obama saved them. he disputes saying that he wrote a piece that has that as the headline. >> complicated. >> would be ironic if the
businessman lost because of a business decision like that. >> would be wonderful, wouldn't it? i'm glad romney was so honest a few years ago in terms of how he felt about this, the fact it has come back to bite him now, it's okay, one of the few times he wrote something down and said something he believed was true, let detroit go bankrupt. i don't fault him for that. >> be honest, are you nervous about tuesday? do you think it could go the wrong way? >> absolutely. i'm most nervous about this, as i said to you earlier this week if we could vote like "american idol" and everybody voted on their sofa at home, obama would win, i do believe he is liked by more americans than -- not liked but that's not what's going to happen, it's about who shows up on tuesday, who has the best organization to get people out to vote. again, it is going to be up, people don't think that the
democratic party is doing all the work necessary in your town to make this happen, you have got to take people to the polls, you have got say to people at work, hey, let's all go vote and then let's have lunch. you know, i've got -- i've got call your friends and your kids and whoever else, no matter what state you are in and say have you voted yet. people have to remind people to vote, get out there and vote, take them to vote, whatever it takes. but listen, of course i'm nervous the republicans are usually much better at this. they are disciplined, organized have more money, they know how to steal and cheat and lie. so, i -- hats off to them. >> whichever side you're on, get out and vote. always exercise your right to vote. michael, good to see you. twice in a week i feel blessed. >> all right. i just missed ""boardwalk empire."" battleground america, tug-of-war in this corner, obama, robert gibbs, in the other corner, grover norquist, tax warrior. ding ding.
prove it. because i've got gray hair doing it. >> president obama speaking today in florida, our special, the man who knows the president better than many, former white house press secretary robert gibbs. welcome. >> how are you? >> i'm good. i'm excited, like most people. i think the excitement comes from nobody seeming to have a clue who is going to win this election. what do you think it will come down to in the end? how do you see the map of tuesday night really evolving based on where things are right now? >> well, look, i know from our campaign's perspective, we feel pretty good about where things are. obviously, what's left now, i'm in wisconsin, we are about 47 1/2 hours from the polls closing, it's all about getting our voters out to the polls all day on tuesday. the president will start his day here with bruce springsteen and hopefully, a big, energetic rally here. look, piers, i feel very good about where we are in the nine battleground states and about what we have to do to finish this race off in a little under
two days. >> in terms of the election campaign, i've been surprised, watching the president today, he was absolutely on fire on the stump. he was the barack obama of four years ago and i couldn't help wondering where the hell's that guy been? why has he been so apparently comparatively lackluster in the last few days? >> piers, i don't know i would agree with the fact that you know, for four years minus two days he has been lackluster but he has been fired up and ready to got last two days. look, i'm sure you get energy from a big crowd like that, you heard the president say, he has brought some real change and some real big change to this country. i stand in a state that's created 25,000 manufacturing jobs, the first positive manufacturing job growth in 20 years in this country. bringing jobs back from overseas and building stuff right here in america to sell all over the world, that's real change here in wisconsin. that's real change in this country.
and look, we've got four more years of work to do with president obama. we have got to strength our education system, improve on this manufacturing economy, take advantage of our domestic energy source you are and continue to keep this country strong and safe. i know that's what's getting him fired up today in florida and will tomorrow in wisconsin, ohio and iowa. >> if he does lose, then many will say it is down to the economy and certainly all the polls, you can see that people still feel very fragile about the economic situation, their own economic position. it's hard the president won the economic bat. i think it has been tough but could have done more. do you accept that? >> i look at the last 32 months, private sector job growth, 5.4 million jobs have been created, look, piers, we didn't get into this economic catastrophe overnight, wasn't a bank that collapsed on wall street in september 2008. it was years and years of
declining wages while workers' productivity increased. it was falling further and further behind and helping their families afford college or being able to buy things, so, look, it is going to take us a while to get out of this mess, we have a good start. we moved this country forward. we have just got keep moving it forward. we can't go back to the failed economic theory that governor romney and palm ryan want, which is sprinkling tax breaks on the very wealthy and hoping that dribbles down somehow to the middle class. that's what got us into this mess, piers, not going to get us out of this mess. >> michael moore said earlier the republicans may win because better at like, stealing and cheating and because america has become a more racist country. >> i'm going to tell you yes think barack obama and this campaign are going to win because i think we have a better message.
i think we have a more hopeful vision of what this country is going to look like. i think we have a campaign that is going to outwork the romney campaign for the last 48 hours, just as we have for the last many, many months, i think when we put all those things together and you see the excitement and the energy that president obama has and that president obama is bringing to we want to do the next four year, i think we are in good position to win this campaign. we just got make sure all the folks there are getting out to vote. i'm in wisconsin telling that to folks, the president will be in three states, including this one tomorrow. we got to make sure people get out there on tuesday. >> robert gibbs, thank you very much indeed. >> thanks for having me, piers. >> i want to turn to the other side, grover norquist, president of americans for tax reform. grover, how are you? >> good to be with you. doing well? >> you feeling confident you're going to win? >> i think romney's going to win. look, the president's been president almost four years. things have gotten worse, not better.
fewer than 50% of the people say they are gonna vote for him. that's always bad news for an incumbent. something unusual would have to happen for an incumbent president polling behind, you know, 47, 48%. all the undecideds are going to go for the guy we know well. not likely. >> bat battle for independents is crucial, as well as battle to energize their vote as well as physically get out and vote. those seem to me tonight two things that in the end, tip it or one way or another. >> i work with taxpayer groups and senate writer organizations in all 50 states. when i talk to next which is and ohio and virginia are the center right seems very active, certainly much more than four years ago there is a real excitement and a lot of concern. we are $5 trillion in debt, worse off than we were four
years ago. we have one out of every 50 americans who was in the job market in the job force when obama got elected has left. 2% of the population has walked out the door and said we are not looking anymore. they would still like to work but they have left. if you counted the guys who walked out the door and quit looking in those unemployment numbers that are very bad but only got a little bit worse the last month obama's happy, we would be over 10% unemployment never in a recovery, technically a a recovery the last three years, had people leaving the job market. people rejoined the job market during real recoveries. this is unprecedented and very sad and unfortunate and that the obama people claim to be happy with this very bad track record. how are they going to make it better if they are happy with
the lousy job record that they have had? >> someone looks pretty happy at the moment is mitt romney, looking at live pictures from him in new port news, virginia, just arrived to do a bit of stumping down there i got to say, he is exuding a very positive demeanor and he is getting pretty big crowds. the feeling that i'm getting, i'm picking up from all our correspondents, reporters on the ground there is a lot more enthusiasm and excitement for potential victory on the ground amongst the republicans than there was at this stage with john mccain. >> well i was just talking to a couple of the journalists around here. they commented when they go out-to-see the obama get out the vote he have efforts, it's there it's good. doesn't have the numbers, the excitement that it did four years ago, so, looking at the sort of obama's get out the vote effort four years ago and this time, evidently paler and less excited. big difference on the republican side. >> if mitt romney can't beat a president who in four years has seen the debt rise by $5
trillion, 16 trillion, has seen unemployment remain pretty much at 8%, that is a catastrophe for the republicans isn't it? >> the interesting thing going on, i think it would be bad for the country, but the modern republican party, we have 29 republican governors. we are going to have one, two three or four more after the election. so, the depth and the strength of the modern republican party, they are gonna pick up more state legislators, even though last election, they jumped 600 more republican state legislators, there are 24 states where republicans have the governor and the state legislature. so, and the house is going to go republican again with the new redistricted lines. so, you look at a republican house of house of representatives for the next decade and don't take the senate, they will strengthen, 2014 they will take the senate for sure, given who's up. you are looking at a republican congress for the rest of the decade. i think we will have a republican president in romney,
but the party is in a strong position. >> i'm going to interrupt you, we are going to listen to the would-be president, mitt romney, right now, speaking live. thank you very much, grover. i appreciate it. >> thank you. >> [ inaudible ]. look to the record. you see, talk is cheap. but a record is earned and earned with real effort. change can't be measured in speeches, change is measured in achievements and four years ago, candidate obama, he promised so much to so many people but he has fall son very short. he promise theed, as a result, to be the postpartisan president, but he has been the most partisan, blaming, attack, dividing and it's not only republicans he has refused to listen to he also doesn't listen to independent voices. he was also gonna focus on creating jobs, remember that,
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clifton, national editor of go vote.com. welcome to you both. we thought the interest of impartiality you can find two people who looked almost identical on either side. we are looking like twins. we are not absolutely impartial tonight. let me start with you, kristen. you filing confident? i'm getting a feeling of confidence amongst republicans but i sort of assume everybody on both sides now spends the next 48 hours lying through their back teeth anyway. >> i'm going to be honest with you, piers, i'm gonna hedge a little bit. i think if you're looking at the polls, the polls are consistently showing obama with a very slight lead in a loft these swing states that makes me very nervous. i think within a lot of these polls, you are seeing romney wynn end pep dents by such slow margins, are the polls missing something, i think republicans are looking at these intangibles, huge rallies showing up for mitt romney, this great performance in early voting and saying this isn't
2008. we feel better about it this time and they feel good going into tuesday. and that's y -- why. >> i think romney, on balance, had the better campaign, a bit more momentum. the president said last week the appalling events of the hurricane because he happens to be president. if you actually look at the way the campaigns ran, you got say that i think romney has done a pretty good job. >> i think absolutely, romney had done a formidable job which is why we are seeing the candidates neck in neck. i think all these great projections and, you know, guesses at who's gonna win, a lot of walks of shame on wednesday morning because somebody's not going to come out the winner. you know, i luke at everyone is mired and obsessed about this polling data. back and forth and back and forth. i go to 538, nate silver's polling data. what he does is takes all the different major polls out there and kind of makes this mess of numbers, this soup of numbers and then adds mathematics and tries make a guesstimate based on all the polls.
what he saw was a huge jump over the weekend with an 85% of obama wing the electoral college. now, does that mean anything? i don't know. but i will say both candidates, it's the ground game that actually matters, one fascinating thing i learned this weekend also was that president kennedy actually campaign you had in 49 states. nixon campaigned in 50 states. since the democratic and republican conventions, our candidates have only campaigned in ten states. so, all this energy is really pouring into the ground game in those key swing states and i think that's going to be the telling point. >> i think nate silver, a genius, he is about the law of probability and he has had romney for the last few weeks now as a probable potential winner between, like, 30% and 20%. that he is a one in three chance. if you go to vegas, a one in three chance of winning roulette, would you be very happy, take him to the cleaners. so i think people have probably
overanalyzed this top-line figure, saying it is 80% probability, well, yes, but not as straightforward as that. >> his mold is as good as the polls that go into it quality control with pollsters with better track records get higher, more value in his model. the problem is if the polls are wrong, not ultimately his fault on election day if mitt romney wins. i think -- so, that's why his model is showing such a strong obama lead, it's because these slight but collective leads in these swing state polls all make his model show that very strong result. >> can we assume, marjorie, do you think that if romney was to lose, all the blame will be laid squarely on hurricane sandy with a dash of chris christie? >> absolutely. because these the latest and greatest. one of the things in that "saturday night live" skit i thought was funny was mitt romney saying but do you remember the first debate, remember how great i was in the first debate?
we have such a short attention span with these things. when it comes down to it three groups of voters that will make all the difference, absolutely the independentsed when a did see obama go from behind a double-digit loss up to almost square even as of this weekend. women, a gap between where women are voting than mccain and george w. bush. there was conventional wisdom more young people turned out in the next election than they didn't, they won by the same numbers but a greater sweep. the same momentum in the same turnout? i think the big question. i think there will be a all right to talk about after this election. >> i will go on record after camera saying i haven't got a bloody clue who is going to win. no one's gonna pin on me that i went with one or the other. i have changed my mind more times than i can remember. >> i wouldn't put any money down. >> exciting night.